Complex factors at play in spat over Thaksin

The Straits Times, January 26, 2007
By Nirmal Ghosh, THAILAND CORRESPONDENT

BANGKOK - BANGKOK'S Sathorn Road, where the Singapore Embassy is located, is sometimes referred to as 'Little Singapore' because of all the Singapore-owned businesses and buildings in the area.

That reflects the fact that Singapore is one of Thailand's largest investors and trading partners.

Military cooperation, which sees Singapore's army and air force train in Thailand, is also a large part of the bilateral relationship.

In recent days, however, Sathorn Road has been the scene of anti-Singapore protests, with up to a few dozen protesters gathering outside the embassy.

The diplomatic spat over former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra's visit to Singapore and his meeting with Deputy Prime Minister S. Jayakumar has the potential to rumble on even as many senior Thai officials wish it would blow over.

Yesterday, Thailand's Ministry of Information and Communication Technology set up a special panel to probe eavesdropping allegations against Shin Corp, raised by army chief General Sonthi Boonyarataglin last week.

According to a senior Thai official, military cooperation remains on a list of factors open to review.

After Mr Thaksin met Professor Jayakumar, some quarters, led by the media group owned by publisher Sondhi Limthongkul, wanted military cooperation suspended.

'We would not like it to go that far,' said the Thai official who spoke to The Straits Times. But he added that the review of bilateral cooperation was not over yet.

Advanced Info Service (AIS) and Shinsat are both Shin Corp companies. AIS dominates Thailand's mobile phone sector, and Shinsat owns the satellites through which most of Thailand's communications are routed.

A year ago, the deal that saw Singapore's Temasek Holdings acquire a controlling stake in Shin Corp gave a badly needed boost to the movement to oust Mr Thaksin.

Mr Thaksin - whose family infuriated his critics even more by walking away with the 73.3 billion baht (S$3.1 billion) proceeds tax-free under Thai law - was seen as having made money from Thais and selling out a strategic asset to foreigners.

The bilateral relationship may have been cordial and cooperative, but there is also an element of economic rivalry.

Also, nationalism has always been a potent factor in Thailand. 'You can't underestimate Thai nationalism, but, of course, we should not play with it,' the senior official noted.

Speaking to The Straits Times last week, former foreign minister Surin Pitsuwan warned that once emotion crept into diplomacy and both sides began taking increasingly nationalistic positions, it would become harder and harder to climb down.

Mr Thaksin has been in self-exile since last September, when the army took over Bangkok while he was in New York.

His visit to Singapore was coloured by an interview he gave to CNN, which proved to be the start of a media offensive.

The location of that interview in Singapore was possibly accidental.

The CNN crew had earlier flown to Hong Kong to meet him, but Mr Thaksin said he was not well and suggested doing the interview in Singapore instead.

Singapore Ambassador Peter Chan had notified the Thais in advance that Mr Thaksin would be in Singapore.

His early word was appreciated, senior officials in Bangkok said.

Then, at the Asean summit in Cebu, Thai Foreign Minister Nitya Pibulsonggkram spoke with his Singapore counterpart, Mr George Yeo, expressing Bangkok's concerns about the visit.

Mr Yeo has confirmed that they met, saying he assured Mr Nitya that Mr Thaksin would have no official meetings in Singapore. He also sought Bangkok's understanding of Singapore's position.

When Mr Thaksin met Prof Jayakumar privately, Thai officials were upset.

Against the backdrop of a Thai media largely hostile to Singapore, officials withdrew an invitation for Mr Yeo to attend a meeting in Bangkok this month on a civil service exchange programme - and suspended the programme.

'We wanted to send a signal of our dissatisfaction to our Singaporean friends. What we are asking for is friendly understanding from Singapore,' said the official who spoke to The Straits Times.

Officials say their response was not disproportionate. They point out that Mr Thaksin's meeting with a junior Indonesian minister on an earlier visit to Bali was different from his meeting Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister. While officials may have expected the matter to end there, Thailand's government has to manage a set of complex factors.

It is trying to push investigations and charges of corruption against Mr Thaksin, his family and friends.

But because it is intent on following the rule of law and due process - unlike the Myanmar junta next door - it has made slow progress.

Dislike of Mr Thaksin runs deep among the military brass, which is convinced he disrespected Thailand's revered and powerful King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

This explains why the subject of the former premier remains a contentious one.

But while eliminating Mr Thaksin as a political threat is a key objective, the Thai government has been unable to curtail him legally.

The Council for National Security has to manage perceptions of Mr Thaksin, curb his influence and ensure his return will not be a threat. It also has to manage opportunistic nationalism, as well as the media.

After Mr Thaksin met Prof Jayakumar, the mass circulation daily Thai Rath responded even before Thailand's government did, attacking Singapore.

'It is a challenge for the Council for National Security to come up with strategies to handle the media,' one Thai official noted.

Many Thai officials are hoping the bilateral spat will blow over soon.

Foreign ministry officials from both countries are still in touch, and the Thais emphasise that their protocol chief has taken a personal interest in security at the Singapore embassy whenever protests have been scheduled.

Many things said in Bangkok were not directed at Singapore, but were for the benefit of the Thai public, one official said.

Referring to Singapore's explanation that DPM Jayakumar's meeting with Mr Thaksin was a private visit between old friends, the official said: 'We don't want to lose a friend like Singapore.

'We are not trying to inflame the situation. Thais want to see it end. But we need a friendly sign, not just a repetition of the same rationale.'