Thaksin may return if he gives up politics, says Surayud

The Straits Times, January 23, 2007
By Nirmal Ghosh, THAILAND CORRESPONDENT



Overture aimed at curbing ousted leader's news value, analysts say

BANGKOK - PRIME Minister Surayud Chulanont yesterday agreed to let his predecessor return to the country, provided he stayed out of politics.

But Mr Thaksin Shinawatra said he would not do so now as the timing was not right.

'Mr. Thaksin is not barred from returning to the country, so if he wants to come back, we need to have a conversation,' General Surayud said here.

But he added: 'After he returns, he must not be involved in any political movement because such movement may bring trouble.'

Mr Thaksin was ousted by the military in a bloodless coup d'etat four months ago while he was in New York.

He has remained overseas since, not officially exiled but, until recently, warned by the military that his return was not welcome.

Reacting to the reversal of the travel ban, Mr Thaksin, who is currently on a visit to Japan, said he did not plan to return immediately.

'I have the right to go back to my motherland anytime I want to. But as a responsible person (my return may) create more conflicts among my supporters and the military. It might not be the right timing for me to go back,' he said.

'I will wait and give more time for the installed government to bring unity to the country.'

The Council for National Security (CNS) has set in motion several investigations against Mr Thaksin and his family, and into his friends' business deals while the billionaire was in power.

But, to date, apart from some demands for back taxes, no formal charges have been filed in court.

Gen Surayud said he had opened up communication channels for Mr Thaksin to discuss his return. 'Do I really need to send him an invitation?' he said without giving any further details.

The change puts the ball in Mr Thaksin's court.

Analysts noted that as long as Mr Thaksin stays abroad, he has freedom of movement and can issue statements and give interviews, and position himself as an overthrown elected leader in exile being hounded in his home country.

If he returns to Thailand, his presence could heighten tension, but the military could also restrict his freedom.

Mr Thaksin may also believe his life could be in danger if he returns, analysts said, recalling the failed car bomb attempt against him a few weeks before the successful coup last year.

International relations professor Panitan Wattanayagorn of Chulalongkorn University said: 'In the beginning, investigations of Thaksin were not properly set up.

'Now, I think the CNS, while not totally in control, is more confident of its ability to maintain control. The cases against him are also moving forward.

'He is a newsmaker as long as he is overseas; once in Thailand, his ability to make news will be much less.'

Mr Thaksin may also be required to defend himself against charges in court.

Among these is a case against his Thai Rak Thai party. The party could be dissolved if found guilty of electoral fraud.

Such a verdict could further cripple Mr Thaksin's prospects for a return to politics - even if he should wish to.