China will face tipping point in 20 years: LKY

It will maintain its growth but calls for participatory govt will increase

The Straits Times, March 31, 2007
By Lydia Lim, SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT


SCHOOL TOUR: Prof Fels showing Mr Lee around the Australia and New Zealand School of Government, where the Minister Mentor had a dialogue with public sector leaders and professionals.






MELBOURNE - MINISTER Mentor Lee Kuan Yew believes China can maintain its growth but predicts Beijing will face a tipping point 20 years from now, when the demands for participatory government grow more widespread.

By then, most of China's population - about 60 to 65 per cent - will have settled in cities and be more exposed to the world through the Internet and other means of communication, he said at a forum here yesterday.

These changes will stir in more Chinese citizens a desire for greater participation.

Mr Lee was responding to a question on China's prospects during a dialogue with about 60 public-sector leaders and professionals at the inaugural World Leaders' Forum of the Australia and New Zealand School of Government.

He said he did not buy into the school of thought that believed China was headed for a collapse owing to such matters as corruption, factionalism, a growing income divide and an increasing demand for participatory government.

The source of his confidence in China? He had seen for himself the high quality of leaders now in charge of running the country.

The top ranks of Chinese society had undergone a 'tremendous transformation', he said, in which the Cultural Revolution leaders were replaced by new and younger leaders whose selection was based on merit.

This change had taken place all the way through, starting from the top ranks in Beijing and 'with each tier below more meritocratic' than the one above.

As a result, those who visit China today 'will find a level of competence at every stage that goes back to the Mandarinate system', Mr Lee said.

He also observed that many in the current group of Chinese mayors were in their 40s and had doctorates and master's degrees in business administration from overseas and Chinese universities.

He gave this reply to Professor Allan Fels, the dean of the school, who had asked about China's future growth, as Australia and New Zealand's prospects would depend on it.

Mr Lee said the present generation of Chinese leaders expected the best to be in charge and set out to co-opt anyone who was talented.

Because of this, they viewed the idea of a free-for-all election as 'anathema'.

But if circumstances changed, he would expect them to find ways to allow greater participation by the people.

During the 70-minute dialogue, Mr Lee fielded 10 questions on issues ranging from the multilateral trading system to global warming and the evolving regional architecture.

He shared his view that, over the long term, the East Asia Summit (EAS) would prove a more productive regional grouping than the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation or Apec, as the latter had lost its focus after the United States brought Russia into the 21-nation grouping.

The EAS has 16 members: the Asean 10, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand.

On climate change, he said nothing any country did to try to slow the process would make a difference until the US, China and India woke up to the fact that they too would be affected and came on board to help tackle the problem.

'When that penny drops, we've got a global response,' he said.