Thai military's error of complacency

The Straits Times, March 3, 2007


WHEN Thailand's generals overthrew prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra last September, they assumed that time was working in their favour. Opinion polls indicated that a majority of the population supported - or at least accepted - their intervention.

The choice of General Surayud Chulanont as the new prime minister was also welcomed.

And international investors shrugged their shoulders, claiming the Thai economy would be unaffected.

This initial mood of complacency now looks like the military's gravest error. Instead of concentrating on rebuilding the country's political system - as everyone expected them to - the generals offered some nebulous ideas about a new Constitution.

And instead of conceiving a serious plan to manage the country, they spent most of their time following Mr Thaksin around the world.

This made for some entertaining episodes. But it also amounted to a huge wasted opportunity, as the current backlash against the Bangkok authorities indicates.

This week's resignation of Finance Minister and Deputy Premier Pridiyathorn Devakula dealt a heavy blow to an already weakened government.

To be sure, Mr Pridiyathorn had faced widespread criticism for his own haphazard policies, which annoyed foreign investors.

Nevertheless, his departure has confirmed what everyone suspected: that behind the show of unity, the military remains deeply split, and finds it increasingly difficult not only to reach a consensus about the country's future options, but also to implement policies on which a decision has been taken.

Graver challenges lie ahead. First, the suspicion in Bangkok is that Mr Pridiyathorn has decided to leave now in anticipation that the country's economy will nosedive, and that he may yet become the standard-bearer of a new political movement.

Meanwhile, opposition parties are becoming restless. And quite a few local political commentators are betting that the military may hold on to power even after the general election, planned for late this year.

In an effort to reassert his authority, Gen Surayud will move quickly to appoint a new finance minister, and is scheduled to reshuffle his government in the coming week.

But this musical chairs game is unlikely to impress the business community.

'The chances are that economic growth this year may be below 4 per cent,' said Mr Thanawat Phonwichai, director of the Economics and Forecasting Centre at the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

And it is becoming clear that the generals who wanted to remould Thailand, eliminate corruption and restore stability are very near to missing every single one of these objectives.

Aberdeen Asset Management CEO Robert Penaloza probably spoke for many foreign businessmen when he said bluntly: 'We don't expect much from the interim government. We're more concerned about when the elections will take place.'